What return should I assume for long-term SIPs?
How to pick a realistic return number for your plan without over-promising future you.
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Why trust the numbers?
- Tools are for education and clarity.
- Results depend fully on your inputs.
- Markets change, so explore ranges, not one number.
- No advice — only calculations and visual explanations.
Disclaimer: Educational illustration only. Uses user-entered assumptions for returns and inflation. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a qualified advisor for decisions.
0–10%
10–20%
20–30%
30–50%
>50%
Note: These ranges are educational guardrails. Real-life comfort depends on your personal commitment, lifestyle, and other goals.
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GrowNiti AI Assistant
Strategic Growth • Smarter Wealth
Your plan for Goal:
— —
- Since your goal is — away, we’ve assumed a — strategy (— p.a.).
- SIP: — monthly.
- Total invested: —; Est. Growth: —.
Goal—
Target—
Horizon—
Risk Type—
Monthly SIP—
Total invested—
Est. Growth—
AI summary • educational, not financial advice
Future • Goal Planner
Future Goal Planner (Data Model)
A model-driven estimate of allocation & SIP based on your inputs.
Equity: 0%
Debt: 0%
Gold: 0%
- Model CAGR range: –
- Suggested monthly SIP: –
- Total invested over period: –
- Potential growth (target – invested): –
Feasibility: —
How this model works
- We pick an Equity / Debt / Gold mix using your risk level and years to goal.
- Using long-run educational return assumptions, we estimate a CAGR range.
- Then we compute the SIP that might reach your target under those assumptions.
This is a simplified illustration, not a prediction. Real-life returns can be very different, especially in the short term.
Illustration model only — GrowNiti Labs is not a SEBI-registered adviser. Please consult a certified financial adviser for personalised advice.
Plan Insights
Personalized checks, stress test & next actions
—
Target—
Horizon—
SIP (est.)—
SIP as % income—
- —
- —
- —
- —
Educational only. Results are model estimates, not investment advice.
Equity: 0%
Debt: 0%
Gold: 0%
- Expected CAGR: –
- Required SIP: – / month
- Total Invested: – • Est. Growth: –
- Feasibility: –
⚠️ For educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Market returns are variable. Please consult a certified financial planner.
Analyze Fund Health
Enter any fund name, select horizon — get real NAV performance, volatility & risk trend.
Ready.
Horizon CAGR
–
Annualised return
Recent Trend (30D)
–
Short-term move
Max Drawdown
–
Worst drop
Volatility
–
Std dev
Health Score
–
Strong / Neutral / Cautious
Disclaimer: The information provided here is for educational and analytical purposes only.
It uses publicly available NAV data (source: mfapi.in) to
calculate performance and risk metrics. This is not financial advice, investment recommendation, or
a solicitation to buy or sell any mutual fund. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Users are advised to consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
The developer and this tool assume no liability for financial loss, decisions, or actions taken
based on this information.
Expected annual returns
Typical long-term assumptions:
Cash 3–5%, Debt 6–8%, Equity 10–12%.
Bucket sizing
Glidepath (reduce equity over time)
Ready.
Yearly corpus snapshot
| Year | Bucket 1 (Cash) | Bucket 2 (Debt) | Bucket 3 (Equity) | Total | Withdrawn (year) | Withdrawn (cum) |
|---|
Disclaimer: Educational illustration only. Uses user-entered assumptions for rates and inflation.
This is not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a qualified advisor.
Ready.
Plan inputs
Classic “4% rule” would use 4.0%
Return & inflation assumptions
Withdrawal is assumed to grow with inflation each year.
Stress scenario Optional
Years
Avg return in bad years (%)
Example: 0% for 5 years, then 8% for the remaining horizon.
Probabilities are based on simulated return paths using your assumptions.
They are not guarantees.
Base success probability
–
Randomised returns with mean & volatility above
Stress success probability
–
Bad years first, then recovery rate
Median end corpus
–
Base scenario (50th percentile)
Worst 10% end corpus
–
Base scenario (10th percentile)
Run the simulation to see how often your money survives, how sideways / bad
early years change the odds, and what levers you can adjust.
Year-by-year survival snapshot
| Year | 10th pct corpus | 50th pct corpus | 90th pct corpus | % paths still alive |
|---|
Disclaimer: Educational illustration only. Uses user-entered assumptions for returns & inflation with simplified Monte-Carlo simulations. This is not investment advice or a guarantee of future outcomes. Consult a qualified advisor before making decisions.
Monte-Carlo • Educational purpose
Corpus (₹)
Monthly SIP (₹)
Years to goal
Target amount (₹)
The simulator checks how often your corpus grows to at least this value.
Asset mix (allocation %)
Total will be normalised to 100% if it doesn't add up.
Ready.
▶
Advanced assumptions (returns, volatility, stress test)
Expected annual returns (p.a.)
Volatility (standard deviation p.a.)
Bad years at start (stress)
Stress drag (−% on return)
Monte-Carlo paths
Changing these values lets advanced users try different assumptions.
Defaults are typical long-term expectations in Indian markets.
Base and stress probabilities (goal success chances)
Base success probability (normal markets)
–
Stress success probability
(weak first years)
–
Median end corpus (P50)
–
10th percentile end corpus (P10, downside case)
–
Example paths (illustrative only): good, median-ish, stress case
These lines show a few example paths. Real outcomes can be higher or lower,
and many other paths are possible with the same SIP and assumptions.
Enter your details and tap “Run Risk Check” to see estimated success probabilities
and example outcomes. Results are simulations based on assumptions and are not
a promise or guarantee.
This tool runs simplified Monte-Carlo simulations using your inputs for
returns, volatility and inflation. It is an educational scenario analysis and
does not provide investment advice or a guarantee of outcomes.
Probabilities are estimates and are sensitive to the assumptions you choose.
Portfolio Risk Tool – FAQ
Equity gives higher long-term return, but also higher short-term volatility.
Monte-Carlo paths include both good and bad years, so results never reach 100%.
Equity has higher expected returns, but it also has higher ups and downs
(volatility). Because yearly returns can vary a lot, even a strong portfolio
cannot guarantee the target. The tool shows a realistic probability based on
many simulated paths, not a guaranteed number.
Stress success probability checks what happens if the
first few years are weak (for example, a long market slowdown).
It tells you how sensitive your plan is to bad early returns. If the stress
probability is much lower than the base probability, your plan depends a lot
on getting good returns in the first years.
P10 is a downside or bad-luck scenario. It means that in the
simulations, only 10% of the paths end below this value and 90% end above it.
It helps you see how low the corpus might go if returns are unfavourable.
Not always. More equity usually means higher upside, but also
higher downside risk. For very high, long-term goals it can
increase the probability of success. But for shorter horizons or modest goals,
too much volatility can reduce the chance of comfortably meeting the target..
No. These are simulated probabilities, based on assumptions you provide.
They are not predictions or investment advice.
Ready.
Playbooks you can use today
🚀 Setup your SIP
- Pick goal (amount & horizon).
- Use SIP Calculator to decide monthly amount.
- Automate date right after salary day.
- Review annually; don’t chase 1-year returns.
🧯 Emergency Fund
- Target 6 months of expenses.
- Keep 50% in savings/FD, 50% in liquid fund.
- Do not invest this money in equity.
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